By Bardil 
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JURRIEN TIMMER, Fidelity Investments’ Global Macro Director, has expressed optimism that the S&P 500 could be on the verge of a market recovery following a significant correction this year. The index has dropped approximately 20% from its all-time high, but Timmer believes it is now positioned for a potential rebound.
In a detailed analysis shared on the social media platform X, JURRIEN TIMMER highlighted that the S&P 500 has been oscillating around a rising trendline since December 2011. The recent correction has pushed the index well below this trendline, creating conditions that could catalyze a market comeback.
“Should the S&P 500 index overtake that breakdown point, it would happen after the index has fully swung from one extreme to another. The chart below shows the index with its rising trendline (exponential regression). Like a pendulum, the market is always moving from one end to the next, and in this case, it went from well above the line to well below. That suggests that investors have priced in enough pain to make it worth taking the other side,” Timmer explained.
Despite his optimism for a near-term recovery, JURRIEN TIMMER cautioned that the S&P 500’s long-term uptrend, which began in 2009, may be nearing its end. He suggested that investors might reassess their positions in the US stock market as the global economic landscape undergoes significant changes.
“There is no getting around questioning the bullish secular regime in which we have been since the financial crisis ended in 2009. The timing of the cyclical drawdown raises questions about the state of the secular bull, which in my view is in its final years. If a new world order of de-globalization and de-dollarization is afoot, it could change the landscape for years to come, and that could very well usher in a new secular regime,” Timmer stated.
He further emphasized that investors are likely to shift their focus to fundamentally sound and undervalued stocks, potentially outside the US markets.
As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was trading at 5,282 points.
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